Bitcoin

Michael Batnick disclosed buying Bitcoin after observing it previously tracked software (IGV) one-for-one during the selloff but has since found support while software remains under pressure — framing Bitcoin as a potential leading indicator.

After tracking software stocks nearly one-for-one through early 2025, Bitcoin found support through a 'second puke' seller exhaustion event while IGV continued breaking down — a divergence Batnick flagged as a buy signal with a disclosed position.

Gold's chemical inertness makes it uniquely 'innate' — requiring no management, no ecosystem maintenance, and no sensitivity to business cycles — advantages that Bitcoin and other alternatives cannot replicate.

Unlike gold, which is chemically inert and requires nothing to persist, the Bitcoin system depends on continuously attracting a vibrant mining community to self-perpetuate — introducing an operational dependency gold simply doesn't have.

Gold is chemically inert and requires no human stewardship to maintain its value, while Bitcoin depends on sustaining an active mining community — making it a managed system rather than a genuinely innate, self-perpetuating store of wealth.

Unlike gold, which is chemically inert and self-perpetuating, Bitcoin requires continuous miner participation to sustain its network — a systemic human-coordination dependency that gold eliminates entirely.

Advances in quantum algorithms have reduced the operations needed to crack encryption from 28 million to 500,000, and functional quantum chips are now expected in 5-7 years — making crypto the most obvious 'honeypot' for non-state actors who crack encryption first.

Despite massive VC funding, hundreds of new protocol launches, and significant token inflation, total crypto market cap is flat over five years — Bitcoin is the only clear success story while talent migrates to AI.

Bitcoin had already suffered months of weak price action before the Iran conflict, washing out fast money and leaving coins in strong hands. Its outperformance versus gold during the crisis reflects prior sentiment reset rather than a fundamental shift to safe-haven asset.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin entered the Iran crisis already washed out after months of poor price action, with fast money out and coins held by strong hands. Its portability advantage over gold may also provide a fundamental bid in a conflict environment.

Bitcoin mining was used only to bootstrap cash flow and infrastructure; IREN is now 'swapping out all the Bitcoin for AI chips,' converting its data-center platform into a pure AI compute play.

During a recent weekend geopolitical shock, Bitcoin moved only 2% compared to a 10% drop during a similar event just one year prior — a sign the broader investor base now includes steadier institutional holders.

The DTCC, NYSE, and NASDAQ are actively participating in tokenization initiatives, moving the concept from hype to infrastructure build. Stablecoins will be the centerpiece enabling dollars to enter the digital asset ecosystem for tokenized equities.

SEC generic listing standards now screen the crypto market to ~10–12 eligible tokens, excluding meme coins and stablecoins. Grayscale's GDLC captures 90% of the ecosystem by market cap in a single screened wrapper — giving investors a new institutional-grade entry point.

With ETF approval and institutional adoption catalysts largely played out, the Clarity Act and remaining regulatory frameworks will unlock sidelined builders and capital, driving the next wave of crypto momentum.

Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $90 billion in assets — roughly one-third the size of the gold ETF market and double the size of silver — with continued inflows from both traditional and crypto-native investors migrating tokens into ETF wrappers for capital efficiency.

Sophisticated investors evaluating tail-risk protection in 2025-26 ran through all options and rejected Bitcoin specifically because it hasn't been tested in a severe inflation or financial-system stress scenario, choosing gold's track record over Bitcoin's theoretical appeal.