U.S. Treasuries

Lower oil export income combined with surging Gulf defense spending means less capital flowing into global markets — including US Treasuries, where petrodollars historically suppressed long-term rates by ~25 basis points.

Treasury bills appear risk-free but their supply is unconstrained — cumulative government debt growth has far exceeded the ~5% annualized return on cash, steadily eroding real purchasing power in a dynamic analogous to a share split.

Unlike positional assets with fixed supply, government debt has unlimited supply growth — the cumulative growth rate of government debt has far exceeded cash yields, steadily eroding real purchasing power over decades.

Government debt growth has consistently exceeded treasury yields, eroding real purchasing power over decades. Unlike gold and other positional assets with fixed supply, treasuries have unlimited supply growth — each new issuance dilutes the real claim on the government's taxing capacity, functioning like a share split.

Whether the energy crisis resolves quickly (reducing inflation) or persists (crushing growth), both paths point to lower yields. The current bond-unfriendly middle ground is unlikely to last.

With the market pricing almost no rate cuts and the labor market fragile at only 20-30K monthly job gains, Treasuries offer upside if the economy softens and Fed eases — plus they're already behaving as effective equity hedge securities.

Inflation data through February showed reacceleration before the war — the rates sell-off reflects a pre-existing regime shift, not just warflation, meaning even a peace deal won't fully reverse the move.

War-driven inflation concerns — oil spikes, fiscal costs, resource strains — erode the real value of fixed coupon payments and push investors to demand higher yields; yet an extreme VIX spike could still trigger buying as investors accept negative real returns purely for the security guarantee.

Iran war inflationary pressures — oil spikes, fiscal spending, military ramp-up — erode real coupon value and push investors to demand higher yields, though extreme VIX spikes may still trigger Treasury buying even at negative real returns.

Oil spikes, fiscal spending, and resource strain from the Iran war raise inflation expectations, prompting investors to demand higher yields — though extreme panic could still trigger a Treasury rally despite negative real returns.