Uber Technologies, Inc

Rather than betting on which company builds the best self-driving car, the ride-hailing platforms that aggregate autonomous vehicle supply are better positioned to capture value from the robotaxi revolution.

Jason Hall's hot take: ride-hailing platforms are better positioned to win from autonomous taxis than the companies building the vehicles.

Self-driving vehicles were supposed to destroy Uber, but the company is positioning as the app layer for rides, food, and physical product delivery — a business that should be much larger in a decade.

Peak-to-trough daily ride demand varies by 4x, meaning an AV-only fleet can only economically serve the first ~25% of the market. If autonomous driving commoditizes, Uber's demand network wins decisively.

In a fragmented autonomous vehicle market with many hardware suppliers, companies that own customer demand — not the vehicles — will capture value. One could even be acquired by Amazon to scale Zoox.

Autonomous driving won't be winner-take-all. With multiple hardware suppliers competing, platforms that aggregate consumer demand — like ride-hailing and delivery apps — will retain their value regardless of which autonomous vehicle technology wins.

In a non-winner-take-all autonomous vehicle market with many hardware suppliers, the ride-hailing and delivery platforms that own customer demand will remain durable — similar to how distribution advantage protects AI incumbents.

Despite generally superior vehicles and new robo-taxi deals with Uber, Lucid's economics have been horrible since going public, and Matt Frankel needs to see that change before getting interested.

Through exclusive deals with Rivian (50,000 vehicles by 2031), Lucid (20,000 Gravity SUVs), and Stellantis/NVIDIA, Uber is locking down autonomous vehicle supply across multiple manufacturers to control the AV ecosystem rather than compete with other ride-hail platforms.

Through exclusive deals with Rivian (50K vehicles), Lucid (20K vehicles), and Stellantis — plus an NVIDIA partnership for the full tech stack — Uber is locking down autonomous vehicle supply across multiple manufacturers.